I am introducing the first feature of this blog: electoral map Friday. As it sounds, I plan on posting an electoral map of the current standings in the Presidential race every Friday from now to the general election. The map will be based on current polling, electoral history, the news of the week and include my own analysis on the state of the race and key battlegrounds.
I also plan on making a similar map of Senate races, although that will be in a separate later post.
So without further ado, here is our first electoral map:
Now a quick explanation of the key:
Solid Red or Blue: 'Safe' states determined by a combination of polling data suggesting the aforementioned state will go for one candidate over the other along with the electoral history of the state suggesting a strong partisan loyalty. For a state to be 'safe' the polling average will usually have to be +10% for one candidate over the other, however sometimes high single digits will also be considered 'safe' as well.
Light Red or Blue: 'Lean' states are determined by similar factors as above. However, in the 'lean' category we will have traditional swing states that seem to be trending in a specific direction in the polling data. Alternatively, states that have a strong partisan history that shows contradictory polling data may also be in this category (e.g. SC).
Neutral: The 'neutral' states on the above map are the ones that show no color. These are states that are either traditional swing states or current states in which polling averages show the race to be statistically tied or too close to definitely call.
Analysis-
At the moment it appears that Hillary Clinton has this election all but won. In her 'safe' category we see that she has 273 electoral votes- three more than required to become President. Due to this, she could lose every 'lean' and 'neutral' state and still be our next President. Now it is still early, however, as several political analysts have noted, no candidate at this point in a Presidential race has ever won the popular vote when trailing three weeks after the party conventions. Of course, the popular vote does not a President make (ask Al Gore), yet if Hillary is winning by the margin national polls put her ahead by recently (approximately 5-9%) she is guaranteed an electoral college win.
State Note-
(Author's note: I plan on writing a state specific note about every 'neutral' and 'lean' state. Due to the complexity and volume of the information, I will post a lengthy analysis of one state a week, along with any updates from previously covered states deemed neccessary.)
Utah- Respected polling firm PPP will be polling the state this weekend. Although, Utah is usually one of the reddest states in the union, having chosen Romney in 2012 by around 50 points, previous polls have shown an unusually tight race. Many pundits have attributed this to Mormon unease at Trump's demagoguery, specifically towards religious minorities.
In the past week, two major developments have taken place regarding the Beehive State. First, the Clinton campaign published an op-ed in Utah's state newspaper making a case for her candidacy. Second, independent conservative candidate Evan McMullin has achieved ballot access for his candidacy. The first shows that the Clinton campaign is interested in contesting Utah, or at least making a play at taunting Trump to waste resources there.
Secondly, McMullen, a Morman, socially conservative, establishment Republican may hold a special appeal to disgruntled voters. Potentially, Mcmullen, along with Libertarian Gary Johnson, could sap enough support allowing Clinton to narrowly edge out a win here. Theoretically, McMullin could even win the state. Trump won barely over 10% of the primary vote in Utah, and if a concentrated effort can consolidate the remaining Republican vote behind McMullen, he could be the first third-party candidate to have a presence in the electoral college since George Wallace in 1968.
(An update to this analysis will be posted shortly after the PPP poll in Utah is published next week.)
Thanks for reading and untill next time,
JMF
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