This will be our first Senate forecast for the 2016 election. To save time and space, my Senate forecasts will go by the same model as the Electoral College forecasts: projecting individual race outcomes, predicting the partisan makeup of the next Senate, and looking to see how the unconventional nature of the Presidential race impacts the results.
So without further ado, here is my first Senate Projection:
Synopsis: As you can see, my map has Democrats gaining four seats to a grand total of 50, Republicans (of course) losing those four seats, falling to 49, and one race, as a toss-up.
Now for a quick reminder of the key:
Solid Red or Blue: 'Safe' seats are determined by a combination of polling data suggesting the aforementioned state will go for one candidate over the other, along with the electoral history of the state suggesting a strong partisan loyalty. For a seat to be 'safe' the polling average will usually have to be +10% for one candidate over the other, however sometimes high single digits will also be considered 'safe' as well.
Intermediate Red or Blue: 'Intermediate' seats are seats that are more than likely, than not, to elect the candidate of one party over the other. These are races where there is an incumbent, who appears to be losing in polling averages. Another factor in marking a senate seat as 'Intermediate' is if the state where the race is being held is in a reliably red or blue state and the Presidential race should favor one candidate over the other.
Light Red or Blue: 'Lean' seats are determined by similar factors as above. However, in the 'lean' category we will have traditional swing states that seem to be trending in a specific direction in the polling data. Alternatively, states that have a strong partisan history that shows contradictory polling data may also be in this category (e.g. Indiana)
Neutral: The 'neutral' seats on the above map are the ones that show no color. These are seats that are either traditional swing states or current states in which polling averages show the race to be statistically tied or too close to definitely call.
Analysis:
To understand the nature of the Senate race, a quick refresher may be in order. At the moment Republicans control the chamber with 54 seats to the Democrat's 46. This year's Senate map is the successor to the Republican wave election in the 2010 midterms where Republicans won 6 new Senate seats. Like many wave years, the Republicans ended up winning seats in traditionally hostile territory such as Illinois and swing states like Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Now 6 years later, Republicans have to defend a dozen seats in a Presidential election year (where the electorate is generally more friendly for Democrats) compared to one Democratic seat which is vulnerable.
Republicans have vulnerable incumbents in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, and Arizona, while Democrats struggle to hold Majority Leader Harry Reid's open seat. To make matters worse for the GOP, Democrats scored a game changing recruit for the open Senate seat in Indiana, former Senator and two term governor Evan Bayh. Bayh has transformed what once was an easy hold for Repbulicans into a seat that at least leans Democratic; for Bayh has high name recognition, strong favorability ratings, and nearly $10 million in the bank. Insider polls leaked have have Bayh up by as much as 30%, although the only public poll released of the race thus far showed Bayh up by only 7%.
Currently, most Republican incumbents are running well ahead of their sinking Presidential nominee, although a few Senators have already found themselves underwater. It is impressive that out of the many seats in which Republicans are facing challengers, they have only bled four so far. Republican incumbents in Wisconsin and Illinois are already seen as lost causes, while since the conventions, polling has shown Republican incumbents Kelly Ayotte (NH) and Pat Toomey (PA)'s reelection hopes taking a nosedive. Meanwhile, Senator Rob Portman (OH) and Marco Rubio (FL) have held steady and competitive leads over relatively sub-par opponents.
However for every piece of good news for the Republican Party, there comes a catch. Besides Indiana, weak Republican incumbents have found themselves in races more competitive than they ever imagined. Polls show a tightening race in North Carolina, where second term Senator Richard Burr could be swept under the rug by a sinking Presidential ticket and major asymmetry in ground campaigns. And in Missouri, Roy Blunt is facing a stark challenge from a rather strong, upstart opponent. While Missouri remains a ruby red state, polls have shown both a close Presidential and Senate race in the state. In the end, the Missouri race may just come down to how high or how low the Presidential tide breaks.
I will be posting weekly analysis on this blog as updates on the state of the Senate, along with the weekly updated maps for the Presidential election. While Democrats appear to have scrapped up a majority as of today, the 2018 cycle will likely be rough for Democrats for similar reasons that this year is tough for Republicans. The stronger the wave this election year for Democrats, the higher the chances that they will hold the Senate in 2018. If Democrats were to win every competitive Senate seat this year they would end up with a 56-44 majority. Assuming Hillary Clinton becomes President, that result would give Democrats a 6 seat buffer in 2018. I plan on doing an outline for the 2018 Senate races sometime later this year.
As a parting gift I give you this image of what the Senate map will look like if the current projections hold on election day. Enjoy!
Until next time,
JMF
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