Long time, no see. I know this is late, but here is my update on the electoral map after this rather odd week.
Changes:
Ohio- From Neutral to Lean Democratic
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District- From Lean Republican to Neutral
Analysis:
As you can see, although a week in political time is often a long, long time. This week bore relatively little change in our electoral map projection. Right now, Clinton has 326 electoral votes in her Safe or Lean category, well over the 270 electoral votes one needs to become President. This as you may notice, is an increase of 18 electoral votes over her total last week. This is entirely due to a number of Ohio polls released in the past week that has given her a 4-5% lead in the crucial battleground state. Other election monitors have noticed as well. The Votemaster over at Electoral-Vote.com has Ohio as 'Lean Democratic' with Clinton holding a 45% to 40% lead, while FiveThirtyEight's Polls Plus model has Clinton at 61% chance of carrying the Buckeye state.
This is a yuge, as Trump would say, blow for the Republican nominee. I'm sure you've heard the political fun fact, that has been repeated so often it borders on cliche- a Republican has never won the White House without winning Ohio. In Trump's case, Ohio is more important than ever. Since he has based his entire strategy on appealing to frustrated White Working Class voters, in which Ohio has plenty. Trump's so-called Rust Belt Strategy depends on winning traditionally Republican friendly swing states like Ohio, while flipping traditionally Democratic Midwest strongholds such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and the more often than not, Democratic leaning swing state of Iowa.
If you look at my map, you will see that strategy has not only hit a roadblock, but torpedoed down the hill engulfed in the flames of this election's dumpster file. While Ohio may be drifting away, his other Midwestern prizes are long, long gone. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan have all gone Democratic every Presidential election since 1992 and my map ranks them as 'Safe' Democratic. Now this isn't just due to their partisan history, but due to consistent polling showing Trump down in those states by high single digits or even double digit margins. Much was made of Trump's potential appeal in Pennsylvania, however it appears his rough edges sanded off a lot of traditional Republican suburban voters around Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Politico recently ran an article about Trump's struggles in Michigan, where he is even trailing in traditionally Republican areas of the state's rural west.
This weakness among suburban voters is precisely the reason for the second change in the map. Nebraska is one of only two states which divy up their electoral votes by congressional district and not the normal winner-take-all system: the other being Maine. Nebraska's second congressional district contains the City of Omaha and the heavily Republican suburbs surrounding it. Traditionally, there has been little difference between the second district and the rest of the state in their preference for President, however with a few resources thrown their direction and a national wave behind Barack Obama, the second district made its' first ever dissent. Obama carried it by a measly 50-49% margin in 2008, confirming the district held a seven percent GOP lean; which was confirmed in 2012 when Romney carried it by approximately that amount points.
Due to the special circumstances of this election, the little district in middle America has once again recieved national attention. Although no polls have been taken of the district or of Nebraska as a whole, since it is a reliably red state, what we have to work on here is only deductive reasoning. Polls have continuously shown Donald Trump performing poorly among college educated white voters, who tend to live in the suburbs. Meanwhile, an insider poll in a similar congressional district in the State of Kansas was leaked to Politico, showing Hillary Clinton up by about ten percent in a heavily Republican district. The New York Time's Nate Cohn noted in an analysis the other day, he saw this evidence that Clinton was probably faring well here. When asked what the first red state to flip to Clinton after North Carolina would be, he asked whether Nebraska's second counted. Last week, I listed it 'Lean Republican' due to lack of data and its' traditional voting history. Due to the reasoning above, I have deemed it appropriate to move the district to 'Neutral'.
Utah Polling Update:
Utah. Probably this election's most unexpected battleground, contested only by South Carolina. Maybe. Well if you believe the latest poll from reputable polling firm Public Policy Polling, it would have you believe Clinton's chances in the Beehive state have been overhyped. Let's start with the bad news; Trump is up 20% in a two way and up 15% in a six way race (including the Libertarians, Greens, Constitution Party, and independent Evan McMullen).
In the six way, Trump grabs 39% of the vote, compared to Hillary Clinton's 24%, succeeded in order by Gary Johnson 12%, McMullen 9%, Castle 2%, and Stein at 1%. It turns out that writing one op-ed, sending in Slick Willy and Scout Leader Tim Kaine may not be enough to pry away this heavily red state. On the bright side, being down only 15% in a state Obama lost by nearly 50% in 2012 and another absurdly high margin in 2008.
While Donald Trump is unpopular among Mormons (56% unfavorable ratings), Hillary Clinton actually receives a much worse number: 84% unfavorable. That's staggering. Apparently, Mormons aren't as sensitive to religious bigotry as the pundits assumed. The only way Hillary Clinton will win this state is if the three other right wing candidates on the ballot (McMullen, Johnson, and Castle) pull enough support from Trump to sink below a third of the vote. That's incredibly unlikely.
Speaking of third party conservative Presidential candidates, Evan McMuffin. I mean McMullen. Shit. If you miss the joke, check out my prior post from Tuesday. Anyway, the PPP poll, the first of Utah since McMullen joined the race, showed him with only a net +7 favorability rating. Which seems odd, until you see numbers. Only 27% of respondents could formulate an opinion about him!
If I were Mr. McMuffin, McMullen, I would camp out in Utah for the next 2 months non-stop. Make himself a fixture of state politics. It's the state, in which, the Mormon conservative has the greatest chance of making a name for himself. I speculated on my state notes last week that he could potentially win the state, being the first third party candidate to do so since George Wallace in 1968. Hey Evan, it's easier to be remembered when winning a state, than getting a significant chunk of the national popular vote (ask Ross Perot or John Anderson).
Usually, after a poll like this I would move Utah from 'Lean' to 'Safe' Republican and later I still may do so. However, due to the Evan McMullin factor, I feel uncomfortable granting Trump the safety I would normally grant him in such a traditionally red state.
Until next time,
JMF
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