I know you were all wondering where the Senate map was yesterday and I apologize for that. I will excuse myself by saying I am working on something very interesting that I am hoping to unveil here first! I'm not sure when I will be done with it and it will likely remain a work in progress for awhile, however I will try to get some initial version of it published as soon as possible.
And now let's get on to the main event, this week's Senate map.
Forecast: Democrats 51 (+5), Republicans 49 (-5)
Democrats: 9 safe, 3 intermediate, 3 lean
Republican: 14 safe, 1 intermediate, 4 lean
Change:
Nevada- Neutral to Lean Democratic
Ohio- Lean Republican to Intermediate Republican
Analysis:
This week the Senate forecast has been... well let's say static. Not much wind came in either direction in Senate races. The two changes noted above are more nit-picky edits made by yours' truly, than revolutionary changes in the race.
Last week, I listed the Nevada Senate race, the only seat Democrats are defending this year, as a neutral toss-up state. I was torn about that then, and I am still torn about it with this change. Fundamentally, the assessment of this race depends on which of the following three factors you find the most important. First, partisan history. Second, polling averages and third, the influence of the Presidential race.
If you go by the first, it's a true tossup. The second, will call it a tossup with a slight lean towards the Republican candidate. However, the third gives you a reverse of the second! To understand this dynamic it is important to understand the odd role Nevada is playing in this year's election. President Obama won Nevada relatively easily in 2008 and 2012, after the state voted for George W. Bush the prior two cycles. Obama's wins there reflected his powerful appeal as a candidate and the changing demographics in the American Southwest.
The Senate seat that is being fought over in Nevada, is that of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, the long time leader of Senate Democrats. The former boxer, although soft spoken, built himself up to be the most powerful actor in Nevada, even when deeply unpopular. He has crafted an enormous political machine, with a mint of cash, which helped him survive a major challenge to his seat back in 2010. In that race, his machine and the support of a growing Latino population translated a tossup race in the polls, to a solid 5 point victory on election day.
This year, Harry Reid is calling it quits. To replace him, Democrat's are running former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, a Latina, against the Republican Nevada Representative Joe Heck. Polls have shown Nevada as razor close in both the Presidential and Senate races, scaring Democrats who thought this Latino heavy state would be in the bag due to the Donald Trump effect. It would appear though that Nevada is one of the few states in which Trump's plan to consolidate White voters seems to be working.
For example, a recent, reputable poll, showed Hillary up 2 points in Nevada, in which she leads by 13 points in the most populous county, although trails by a staggering 45% in the rest of the state. Clark County, where Clinton leads by 13, is heavily Latino and urban, while the rest of the state is predominately rural and white. Due to these demographic cross-tabs, which have been confirmed by multiple polls, Nevada will be a battle of turnout. On the face of it, this benefits Hillary Clinton and all Democrats down ticket, including Cortez.
Simply this is because in a game of turnout, whomever has the strongest ground game, or GOTV (Get Out the Vote) operation is favored to win. The Clinton campaign has spent millions on hiring staff across swing states, while the Trump campaign has spent millions on... hats. Hats, stickers, and signs are all good, but they don't decide elections. Voting does. Hence, if Clinton wins Nevada, Democrats will hold the seat, if not, the Republicans will take it. Due to the probability, that all else equal, Hillary Clinton will narrowly carry Nevada, I feel safe classifying the Nevada Senate race as a 'lean' Democratic.
To finish up the analysis, I just want to briefly explain my other tweak to the map. I moved Ohio from 'lean' Republican to 'intermediate' Republican due to a series of poll numbers showing Republican incumbent Rob Portman holding a consistent 4-8% lead over Democratic challenger former governor Ted Strickland. Strickland has run a hapless campaign, to put it diplomatically. He has a Biden-esque persona, however one that falls flat of the charm, and heavy on gaffes. Just today, news broke that the national Democrats will be delaying investing money in this race due to Stickland's flailing numbers. The combination of these two factors has convinced me that Rob Portman has this all but won, hence the 'intermediate" rating. In a later Senate update I may write more about the Ohio Senate race if necessary.
But, until next time!
-JMF
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